Trust This: Builders Facing Tariff Whiplash
00 Trust This. Posts 👷♂️ Trust This: Builders facing tariff [...]
By Joseph E. Seagle, Esq.
👋 Happy Friday! Tomorrow, being the first Saturday in May, is the 🏇🏾 Kentucky Derby. Get ready for those crazy 👒 hats.
❗️Situation Awareness: Our offices will be closed on Memorial Day.
📍 The big picture: A volatile U.S. tariff environment is hiking up construction material costs just as the spring housing season sputters, adding new friction to a market already struggling with high mortgage rates and buyer hesitation.
🧱 What’s happening:
A 10% blanket tariff and 145% tariffs on Chinese imports are causing supplier price hikes—averaging 6.3%—for essential building materials like lumber and steel.
Homebuilders estimate these tariffs could increase the average price of a new home by $10,900.
Residential housing starts fell 11.4% in March, while permits dropped 3.1% year-over-year as builders brace for economic uncertainty.
🏗️ Why it matters to you:
Realtors: Expect continued affordability challenges. Entry-level buyers are being priced out, making it tougher to move inventory unless significant incentives are offered.
Mortgage Brokers: Loan volume may dip as buyers get cold feet, delaying mortgage applications or downsizing their purchase ambitions.
Title Agents: Slower construction means fewer transactions down the line. Prepare for a shift toward resale markets and refinances.
💡 Zoom in:
Builders like D.R. Horton are delaying cost pass-throughs until 2026. But smaller builders, with tighter margins, may need to raise prices now or exit markets altogether.
Companies like Hapi Homes are pivoting to 100% domestic supply chains, eating a 5% average cost increase to stabilize long-term pricing.
📊 Between the lines:
Domestic sourcing may offer a hedge, but not a discount. Historically, U.S. suppliers have used tariffs’ market protections to reduce competition as an opportunity to raise prices on domestic goods, too.
Expect home sizes and customization options to shrink as builders tighten efficiency to cater to cost-conscious buyers.
🔮 What’s next: Watch for builder M&A activity as large players acquire land and operations from struggling small- to mid-size firms. Also, keep an eye on supply chain trends—relationships with domestic suppliers are becoming strategic assets.
Go deeper: Orlando Business Journal
📉 The Big Picture: Florida’s real estate market, once a beacon of growth, is now showing signs of strain. According to Cotality’s recent report, the state faces challenges like slowing demand, rising insurance costs, and an oversupply of homes, particularly in areas like Winter Haven, Tampa, and West Palm Beach.
📊 By the Numbers
Winter Haven: Median home prices rose from $234,900 in January 2021 to $314,950 in January 2025. However, it’s now considered at “very high risk” for a price decline .
Tampa: Home prices increased from $265,000 in 2021 to $360,000 in early 2025. It’s ranked third nationally for potential price declines .
West Palm Beach: Median prices jumped from $323,000 in 2021 to $485,000 in 2025. It’s fifth on the list of markets at high risk for price drops .
🏘️ What’s Driving the Shift?
Insurance Woes: Florida homeowners face the highest insurance premiums in the U.S., averaging $2,625 annually, 24% above the national average .
Inventory Surge: January 2025 saw a record 172,209 homes for sale in Florida, a 22.7% increase year-over-year, leading to a buyer’s market .
Migration Patterns: While Florida attracted 1.8 million new residents since 2020, the pace has slowed, with many now relocating to neighboring states like Georgia and North Carolina .
🧭 Implications for Real Estate Professionals
Realtors: Adjust pricing strategies to reflect the current market dynamics. Emphasize properties with competitive insurance rates and highlight value over luxury.
Mortgage Brokers: Prepare clients for potential appraisal challenges. Offer guidance on navigating insurance premiums and property taxes.
Title Insurance Agents: Stay informed about regional risks, especially in high-risk areas, to advise clients accurately and adjust coverage options accordingly.
📌 Bottom Line: Florida’s real estate landscape is evolving. Professionals must stay agile, informed, and proactive to navigate these changes and continue to serve clients effectively.
Go deeper: Cotality (formerly known as CoStar)
Naples estate sells for $255 million to Florida land trust … but did they use the trust to conceal the purchase price? Obviously not. Wall Street Journal (subscription)
Vacant Miami Beach home lot sells for $23 million. They got our location wrong and said we were the land trust buyer when we were actually the seller, but at least they spelled our name right. South Florida Business Journal (gift link)
DOGE aide dismantling CFPB owns stock in companies that could benefit from the cuts. Propublica
East Texas Title Company files suit against FinCEN in an effort to block implementation of the rule requiring disclosure of trust and entity beneficiaries, starting December 1. KETK News
Zillow predicts home prices will slide by almost 2% over the next year. Zillow
U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in April to its lowest level since the pandemic. AP and The Conference Board
U.S. Consumer spending surged in March as inflation continued to cool. Reuters
U.S. Economy shrinks for the first time in three years. Newsweek
U.S. Manufacturing activity has shrunk the most since November. Bloomberg (gift link)
The inventory of homes for sale rose 30.6% year over year in April, as 18% of homes saw a price reduction. It’s a buyer’s market for the first time in a long time. Realtor
These are the kinds of snowballs I prefer to see when in Asheville.
In real estate and business, mindset isn’t part of the game — it IS the game.
If you want to dominate, not just survive, you need to know the difference between consumers and producers, and why an abundance mindset crushes scarcity thinking every single time.
Consumers vs Producers:
Consumers wait for the perfect opportunity. They chase shiny objects. They hope someone else makes it easy.
Producers?
🔥 They build opportunities.
🔥 They create deals.
🔥 They solve problems.
Producers know that opportunity isn’t found — it’s made.
Scarcity vs Abundance:
Scarcity says: “There’s not enough for me.”
Abundance says: “There’s more than enough if I create value.”
Scarcity hoards and hesitates.
Abundance collaborates, takes action, and wins.
Bottom Line:
Producers with an abundance mindset don’t just close more deals — they create whole new markets.
If you want bigger wins, bigger impact, and bigger income, it starts with thinking bigger.
⚡ Be the producer.
⚡ Live in abundance.
⚡ Make it happen.
You’ve got this — and we’re rooting for you.
This is the easiest way for a busy person wanting to learn AI in as little time as possible:
Sign up for The Rundown AI newsletter
They send you 5-minute email updates on the latest AI news and how to use it
You learn how to become 2x more productive by leveraging AI
We hope you found this helpful — any feedback is appreciated and can be shared by hitting reply or using the feedback feature below.
Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe here.
Have an idea or issue to share? Email us.
Connect with us using your preferred social media and website links for MyLandTrustee and Aspire Legal Solutions.
Our mailing address: PO Box 547945, Orlando, FL 32854-7945
Our physical address: 1901 West Colonial Drive, First Floor, Orlando, FL 32804
Be on the lookout for our next issue! 👋
By Joseph E. Seagle, Esq.
👋 Happy Friday! Tomorrow, being the first Saturday in May, is the 🏇🏾 Kentucky Derby. Get ready for those crazy 👒 hats.
❗️Situation Awareness: Our offices will be closed on Memorial Day.
📍 The big picture: A volatile U.S. tariff environment is hiking up construction material costs just as the spring housing season sputters, adding new friction to a market already struggling with high mortgage rates and buyer hesitation.
🧱 What’s happening:
A 10% blanket tariff and 145% tariffs on Chinese imports are causing supplier price hikes—averaging 6.3%—for essential building materials like lumber and steel.
Homebuilders estimate these tariffs could increase the average price of a new home by $10,900.
Residential housing starts fell 11.4% in March, while permits dropped 3.1% year-over-year as builders brace for economic uncertainty.
🏗️ Why it matters to you:
Realtors: Expect continued affordability challenges. Entry-level buyers are being priced out, making it tougher to move inventory unless significant incentives are offered.
Mortgage Brokers: Loan volume may dip as buyers get cold feet, delaying mortgage applications or downsizing their purchase ambitions.
Title Agents: Slower construction means fewer transactions down the line. Prepare for a shift toward resale markets and refinances.
💡 Zoom in:
Builders like D.R. Horton are delaying cost pass-throughs until 2026. But smaller builders, with tighter margins, may need to raise prices now or exit markets altogether.
Companies like Hapi Homes are pivoting to 100% domestic supply chains, eating a 5% average cost increase to stabilize long-term pricing.
📊 Between the lines:
Domestic sourcing may offer a hedge, but not a discount. Historically, U.S. suppliers have used tariffs’ market protections to reduce competition as an opportunity to raise prices on domestic goods, too.
Expect home sizes and customization options to shrink as builders tighten efficiency to cater to cost-conscious buyers.
🔮 What’s next: Watch for builder M&A activity as large players acquire land and operations from struggling small- to mid-size firms. Also, keep an eye on supply chain trends—relationships with domestic suppliers are becoming strategic assets.
Go deeper: Orlando Business Journal
📉 The Big Picture: Florida’s real estate market, once a beacon of growth, is now showing signs of strain. According to Cotality’s recent report, the state faces challenges like slowing demand, rising insurance costs, and an oversupply of homes, particularly in areas like Winter Haven, Tampa, and West Palm Beach.
📊 By the Numbers
Winter Haven: Median home prices rose from $234,900 in January 2021 to $314,950 in January 2025. However, it’s now considered at “very high risk” for a price decline .
Tampa: Home prices increased from $265,000 in 2021 to $360,000 in early 2025. It’s ranked third nationally for potential price declines .
West Palm Beach: Median prices jumped from $323,000 in 2021 to $485,000 in 2025. It’s fifth on the list of markets at high risk for price drops .
🏘️ What’s Driving the Shift?
Insurance Woes: Florida homeowners face the highest insurance premiums in the U.S., averaging $2,625 annually, 24% above the national average .
Inventory Surge: January 2025 saw a record 172,209 homes for sale in Florida, a 22.7% increase year-over-year, leading to a buyer’s market .
Migration Patterns: While Florida attracted 1.8 million new residents since 2020, the pace has slowed, with many now relocating to neighboring states like Georgia and North Carolina .
🧭 Implications for Real Estate Professionals
Realtors: Adjust pricing strategies to reflect the current market dynamics. Emphasize properties with competitive insurance rates and highlight value over luxury.
Mortgage Brokers: Prepare clients for potential appraisal challenges. Offer guidance on navigating insurance premiums and property taxes.
Title Insurance Agents: Stay informed about regional risks, especially in high-risk areas, to advise clients accurately and adjust coverage options accordingly.
📌 Bottom Line: Florida’s real estate landscape is evolving. Professionals must stay agile, informed, and proactive to navigate these changes and continue to serve clients effectively.
Go deeper: Cotality (formerly known as CoStar)
Naples estate sells for $255 million to Florida land trust … but did they use the trust to conceal the purchase price? Obviously not. Wall Street Journal (subscription)
Vacant Miami Beach home lot sells for $23 million. They got our location wrong and said we were the land trust buyer when we were actually the seller, but at least they spelled our name right. South Florida Business Journal (gift link)
DOGE aide dismantling CFPB owns stock in companies that could benefit from the cuts. Propublica
East Texas Title Company files suit against FinCEN in an effort to block implementation of the rule requiring disclosure of trust and entity beneficiaries, starting December 1. KETK News
Zillow predicts home prices will slide by almost 2% over the next year. Zillow
U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in April to its lowest level since the pandemic. AP and The Conference Board
U.S. Consumer spending surged in March as inflation continued to cool. Reuters
U.S. Economy shrinks for the first time in three years. Newsweek
U.S. Manufacturing activity has shrunk the most since November. Bloomberg (gift link)
The inventory of homes for sale rose 30.6% year over year in April, as 18% of homes saw a price reduction. It’s a buyer’s market for the first time in a long time. Realtor
These are the kinds of snowballs I prefer to see when in Asheville.
In real estate and business, mindset isn’t part of the game — it IS the game.
If you want to dominate, not just survive, you need to know the difference between consumers and producers, and why an abundance mindset crushes scarcity thinking every single time.
Consumers vs Producers:
Consumers wait for the perfect opportunity. They chase shiny objects. They hope someone else makes it easy.
Producers?
🔥 They build opportunities.
🔥 They create deals.
🔥 They solve problems.
Producers know that opportunity isn’t found — it’s made.
Scarcity vs Abundance:
Scarcity says: “There’s not enough for me.”
Abundance says: “There’s more than enough if I create value.”
Scarcity hoards and hesitates.
Abundance collaborates, takes action, and wins.
Bottom Line:
Producers with an abundance mindset don’t just close more deals — they create whole new markets.
If you want bigger wins, bigger impact, and bigger income, it starts with thinking bigger.
⚡ Be the producer.
⚡ Live in abundance.
⚡ Make it happen.
You’ve got this — and we’re rooting for you.
This is the easiest way for a busy person wanting to learn AI in as little time as possible:
Sign up for The Rundown AI newsletter
They send you 5-minute email updates on the latest AI news and how to use it
You learn how to become 2x more productive by leveraging AI
We hope you found this helpful — any feedback is appreciated and can be shared by hitting reply or using the feedback feature below.
Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe here.
Have an idea or issue to share? Email us.
Connect with us using your preferred social media and website links for MyLandTrustee and Aspire Legal Solutions.
Our mailing address: PO Box 547945, Orlando, FL 32854-7945
Our physical address: 1901 West Colonial Drive, First Floor, Orlando, FL 32804
Be on the lookout for our next issue! 👋
Smart Sites2025-05-06T10:13:41+00:00May 6, 2025|
00 Trust This. Posts 👷♂️ Trust This: Builders facing tariff [...]
Joe Seagle2025-05-01T04:16:45+00:00May 24, 2024|
1 Big Thing. Retiring Baby Boomers Look Ahead Baby [...]
Baby boomers are likely to live longer than earlier generations have, and they’re worried about having enough money to cover housing, care, and other expenses for the duration.
Why it matters: Boomers make up 20% of the U.S. population overall but represent 39% of U.S. homebuyers and 52% of sellers. As a real estate professional, being attuned to the needs of this massive demographic will keep you ahead of the curve.
Breaking down the “retirement trifecta:” Leaving behind a career and the paychecks that come with it is scary. Boomers are weighing their current assets and investments against their expectations for the next 20 or even 30 years. Top of mind are questions about:
Aging in place isn’t cheap either: Most boomers (78%) say they want to age in their own homes. Most existing homes will require some level of adaptation to accommodate their evolving needs, which costs money.
Those homes are also a source of wealth: America’s boomers currently have about $13 trillion in home equity, a number that’s expected to rise to $20 trillion by the end of the decade.
The importance of relationships: Boomers value relationships with advisers and others who shape their financial well-being. They’re looking for providers who understand retirees’ needs and who’ll work with them to find the best solutions.
The bottom line: The time for digging into the needs and challenges of boomers — from mortgage planning to home-building — is now. These efforts can benefit real estate professionals and investors well into the future as boomers will continue to shape many aspects of the real estate industry for years to come.
Contrary to nationwide trends, the number of available homes in Florida — particularly those of “motivated” sellers — has increased dramatically.
Why it matters: Although over the past few years, Florida had been an outlier with sustained price growth, the state is now experiencing a surge in inventory, and home prices are stagnant.
An overdue correction?: Redfin’s chief economist Daryl Fairweather noted that “Florida is very unique” in that it “actually sustained price growth after interest rates went up.”
The motivation looks widespread: With over 5,600 Zillow listings in Florida that include the keyword “motivated” in the description, it’s fair to characterize the market as flooded with sellers eager to unload their property.
Increased median time on the market: In addition to keeping price growth stagnant, motivated sellers have also contributed to a marked increase in the span of time homes have spent on the market.
The cost of owning a home in Florida: Redfin’s Fairweather points out that several factors are contributing to the changes in the Florida market. The state is becoming synonymous with:
Homebuilders driving inventory: It isn’t only existing homes people are eager to sell. Homebuilders are doing their fair share as they seek to provide available homes for those entering the market.
The bottom line: Florida enjoyed impressive price growth in recent years, but now — thanks to motivated sellers and increased inventory — the market’s catching up.
In this week’s short video, I’m discussing homesteads, Florida, and land trusts.
Listen in or watch on your favorite channel.
Yesterday, Sean Foley spoke to a group of local CEO’s and business leaders at a luncheon sponsored by First Horizon Bank. I was fortunate to be invited and even ask Mr. Foley a question.
He shared his thoughts on primate behavior, neuroscience, and child-rearing, among other far-reaching topics.
He told the story of one of his Pro-Tour players who was at the bottom of the pro standings and within five tournaments of losing his touring card.
Why it matters: I asked Foley how he coached the pro to focus on the gain instead of the gap since I sometimes have the same issue with crewmembers and clients who are so focused on where they want to go, they never celebrate how far they’ve come.
He also pointed out another term for “failure” is “feedback.”
The bottom line: Meditate, focus on sleep quality, practice gratitude, and anticipate the reality of what you’ll be facing. Then train for that reality to attain top performance and a happy life.
We hope you found this helpful — any feedback is appreciated and can be shared by hitting reply or using the feedback feature below.
Be on the lookout for our next issue! 👋
Baby boomers are likely to live longer than earlier generations have, and they’re worried about having enough money to cover housing, care, and other expenses for the duration.
Why it matters: Boomers make up 20% of the U.S. population overall but represent 39% of U.S. homebuyers and 52% of sellers. As a real estate professional, being attuned to the needs of this massive demographic will keep you ahead of the curve.
Breaking down the “retirement trifecta:” Leaving behind a career and the paychecks that come with it is scary. Boomers are weighing their current assets and investments against their expectations for the next 20 or even 30 years. Top of mind are questions about:
Aging in place isn’t cheap either: Most boomers (78%) say they want to age in their own homes. Most existing homes will require some level of adaptation to accommodate their evolving needs, which costs money.
Those homes are also a source of wealth: America’s boomers currently have about $13 trillion in home equity, a number that’s expected to rise to $20 trillion by the end of the decade.
The importance of relationships: Boomers value relationships with advisers and others who shape their financial well-being. They’re looking for providers who understand retirees’ needs and who’ll work with them to find the best solutions.
The bottom line: The time for digging into the needs and challenges of boomers — from mortgage planning to home-building — is now. These efforts can benefit real estate professionals and investors well into the future as boomers will continue to shape many aspects of the real estate industry for years to come.
Contrary to nationwide trends, the number of available homes in Florida — particularly those of “motivated” sellers — has increased dramatically.
Why it matters: Although over the past few years, Florida had been an outlier with sustained price growth, the state is now experiencing a surge in inventory, and home prices are stagnant.
An overdue correction?: Redfin’s chief economist Daryl Fairweather noted that “Florida is very unique” in that it “actually sustained price growth after interest rates went up.”
The motivation looks widespread: With over 5,600 Zillow listings in Florida that include the keyword “motivated” in the description, it’s fair to characterize the market as flooded with sellers eager to unload their property.
Increased median time on the market: In addition to keeping price growth stagnant, motivated sellers have also contributed to a marked increase in the span of time homes have spent on the market.
The cost of owning a home in Florida: Redfin’s Fairweather points out that several factors are contributing to the changes in the Florida market. The state is becoming synonymous with:
Homebuilders driving inventory: It isn’t only existing homes people are eager to sell. Homebuilders are doing their fair share as they seek to provide available homes for those entering the market.
The bottom line: Florida enjoyed impressive price growth in recent years, but now — thanks to motivated sellers and increased inventory — the market’s catching up.
In this week’s short video, I’m discussing homesteads, Florida, and land trusts.
Listen in or watch on your favorite channel.
Yesterday, Sean Foley spoke to a group of local CEO’s and business leaders at a luncheon sponsored by First Horizon Bank. I was fortunate to be invited and even ask Mr. Foley a question.
He shared his thoughts on primate behavior, neuroscience, and child-rearing, among other far-reaching topics.
He told the story of one of his Pro-Tour players who was at the bottom of the pro standings and within five tournaments of losing his touring card.
Why it matters: I asked Foley how he coached the pro to focus on the gain instead of the gap since I sometimes have the same issue with crewmembers and clients who are so focused on where they want to go, they never celebrate how far they’ve come.
He also pointed out another term for “failure” is “feedback.”
The bottom line: Meditate, focus on sleep quality, practice gratitude, and anticipate the reality of what you’ll be facing. Then train for that reality to attain top performance and a happy life.
We hope you found this helpful — any feedback is appreciated and can be shared by hitting reply or using the feedback feature below.
Be on the lookout for our next issue! 👋
Reply
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